US Tariffs Pressure Under Trump Era Shrinks Global Scotch Whisky Sales by 3% in H1 2025 

The Scotch whisky industry has been expressing mounting concern, and this has been acknowledged by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) with regards to how their exports have been affected by threats of tariffs as well as other forms of trade barriers.

In a fascinating case of how geopolitics can affect international business, one of the oldest sectors in the world, that of scotch whiskies, is facing a further slowdown in sales in the first half of 2025, down 3 percent in volume against 2024 levels. These insights are a function of a range of factors that are influencing consumer choices and macroeconomic indicators, but also being driven by a further effect of pressures put in place by a Trump administration in terms of tariffs in international trade. 

What was once a symbol of limitless international trading is now hindered in its international growth, after years of steady progression. The effect of the global crisis may prove particularly damaging, due to the historical significance of exports to the United States, a crucial market for exports that once brought in nearly £1 billion in exports in 2024. 

The key culprit behind this downturn is the reintroduction of tariffs by the US on Scotch imports, which forms part of the set of tariffs reintroduced by President Donald Trump, during his presidency in 2025. Although the tariff, which stands at about 10 per cent for spirits of UK origin, may not appear to be significant when compared to previous rates, its overall impact has been significant. Trade bodies estimate that the tariff has resulted in the Scotch industry losing about £4 million per week, or tens of millions, during the first half of the year. 

These protectionist measures reflect a new US emphasis on redressing perceived trade imbalances and exerting pressure in parallel negotiations regarding aerospace subsidies and other disputed trade matters. While the tariffs are lower than the 25 per cent levies imposed during earlier disputes, the uncertainty they consistently create weighs heavily on distillers’ global strategies and pricing models. 

The Scotch whisky industry has been expressing mounting concern, and this has been acknowledged by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) with regards to how their exports have been affected by threats of tariffs as well as other forms of trade barriers. The need to exercise pragmatism and use “measured approaches” to address any aspects of trade tension has been advocated in official statements by the association as important to the industry’s health. 

However, the reduction in sales cannot be attributed solely to the imposition of tariffs; besides this, overall trends in the consumption of alcohol across the global scenario should also not be underestimated. Inspired by the spending habits of consumers across some of the most prominent economies, the younger generations have been reflecting decreasing alcohol consumption habits and increased sensitivities towards an increase in prices; this has hindered the required expansion across the international landscape at this juncture. 

The impact of the tariffs has been twofold in the US, particularly. They have increased retail prices for imported Scotch, thereby making it less competitive against domestic spirits and alternatives. On the other hand, they have disrupted distribution networks, wherein the three-tier importer-distributor-retailer system already complicates margin structures and pricing strategies. Combined, these have led to a 6 percent slide in US Scotch sales during the first nine months of the year 2025, said industry analysts. 

Looking ahead, the outlook is cautiously positive about a possible revival in the next decade through the possibilities of trade deals, the changes in the world market demand patterns of the future, and proper marketing in the emerging markets. The extended maturation periods in the distillation of whiskey itself are a reminder of the significance of future-oriented trade policy guarantees. The scenario in the world of Scotch whiskey has a direct relevance in the context of the impact of geopolitics on trade.