World leaders are poised to convene for the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), an annual gathering orchestrated by the United Nations to address the escalating climate crisis. Set to kick off on November 30, with the United Arab Emirates steering the discussions in its role as the rotating presidency.
A Comprehensive Agenda
The COP28 agenda reflects the urgency of the climate crisis and the need for decisive global action. Paramount on the docket is the discussion surrounding the phasedown, or potentially, the phase-out of fossil fuels. This pivotal conversation aligns with the global objective to fortify the world’s resilience to extreme weather events, devise strategies for trading carbon emissions, and establish a new fund to ameliorate the loss and damage caused by the inexorable march of global warming.
A Year of Climate Extremes
The backdrop for COP28 is a year marked by the devastating consequences of climate change. The summer season in the northern hemisphere shattered records for global warmth, underscoring the immediacy of the crisis. Tragic events, such as the Mediterranean storm Daniel claiming over 5,000 lives in Libya and a wildfire on Maui resulting in at least 115 casualties, serve as poignant reminders of the consequences of inaction.
Logistics of COP28
Anticipated as the largest summit to date, COP28 is expected to draw over 70,000 participants. Despite initial scepticism surrounding the choice of the United Arab Emirates, a significant oil producer, to lead the talks, the UAE aims to leverage its position to catalyze more ambitious emissions reduction efforts, especially from other oil-and-gas-rich nations.
Unpacking the Significance of COP
The COP, officially known as the Conference of the Parties, constitutes a multilateral assembly of nearly 200 countries convened by the United Nations. This gathering, now in its 28th year, operates under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, aiming to facilitate discussions on curbing man-made climate change and adapting to the escalating global temperatures.
The original intent of the COP process, initiated three decades ago, was to create a multilateral platform where every participating country could have an equal say in shaping the global response to greenhouse gas emissions. However, persistent divisions between affluent and developing nations complicate the negotiations. Developing nations argue that the industrialized world’s historic reliance on fossil fuels propelled its economic development and that they should be allowed the same latitude.
A Struggle to Fulfill the Paris Agreement
While the COP process achieved a breakthrough in Paris in 2015 with the landmark Paris Agreement, progress has been halting. The agreement set the ambitious goal of limiting temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, with a stretch target of not exceeding a 1.5-degree Celsius increase. Achieving this necessitates reducing emissions to “net zero” by the mid-century. However, countries have struggled to translate these commitments into meaningful actions.
A Crucial Progress Review
COP28 assumes particular importance as it marks the first official stocktake of progress made since the signing of the Paris Agreement. The verdict is clear: countries are not moving swiftly enough to adhere to the targets set in Paris. The review aims to exert pressure on nations to accelerate their efforts and brings renewed attention to the imperative of global collaboration.
COP28 Attendees and Participants
Anticipated to be the largest summit, COP28 will host negotiators from 197 countries who will spend two weeks in closed-door sessions thrashing out the details of crucial agreements. Ministers and, on occasion, heads of state may also participate to facilitate decisions. The consensus-driven nature of COP negotiations affords every country, regardless of size, an equal say in the proceedings.
Beyond government representatives, COP28 will witness the participation of civil society groups and businesses, each seeking to make their voices heard on the fringes of the event. Journalists, as conveyors of information to the wider world, will contribute to the dissemination of the discussions taking place within the summit.
Why COP28 Matters
The significance of COP28 extends beyond a routine annual meeting. This year’s summit presents a unique opportunity to address critical themes, including the phasing out of fossil fuels and achieving “net-zero” emissions. Richer nations, particularly in Europe, advocate for more robust commitments, while developing nations, such as India, stress the indispensability of fossil fuels for their economic growth.
The Conundrum of Climate Finance
A pivotal aspect of COP28 revolves around climate finance. While affluent nations have fulfilled their commitments to mobilize $100 billion annually to assist vulnerable countries, this amount pales in comparison to the $2.5 trillion per year needed by 2030. Negotiators are striving to establish a new, post-2025 collective goal for climate finance. Debates also focus on widening the pool of contributors to include major economies such as China.
Potential Outcomes and Announcements
COP28 could witness a flurry of announcements by world leaders on tackling methane emissions, sustainable farming, and the tripling of renewable energy capacity. The host country, the UAE, is expected to unveil a multi-billion-dollar fund dedicated to investing in climate-friendly technologies.
The Looming Specter of Failure
COP summits, marked by the need for consensus, occasionally face challenges culminating in failure. The COP25 in Madrid in 2019 and the infamous COP21 in Copenhagen in 2009 are notable examples. Even if a final text is agreed upon, some countries, particularly small island nations, might perceive it as inadequate unless it includes robust language on phasing out fossil fuels and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The COP28 President
Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, appointed as the COP28 president by the UAE, heads the pivotal role of brokering agreements among the 197 parties. However, his association with the UAE’s state oil producer, Abu Dhabi National Co., raises questions about impartiality. Advocates highlight his chairmanship of Masdar, the state renewable company, as evidence of a balanced perspective.
COP28 unfolds as a critical juncture for global climate action. In the face of a burgeoning climate crisis, leaders, negotiators, and stakeholders must navigate complexities, address disparities, and pave the way for a sustainable future. As the world awaits the outcomes of COP28, the international community holds its collective breath, hoping for meaningful progress in the fight against climate change.