Iran’s Political Showdown: The Race for Presidency

Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident last Sunday prompted an election that is to be held on 21 July in Iran.

With the official mourning for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi coming to an end, there is a race for the presidency wherein close to 20 names have been proposed.

The Guardian Council, the 12-stong elite body needs first to clear all the candidates, but the regime is finding it difficult on the one hand, to ensure continuity and on the other to allow an open competition that motivates turnout and provides the victor legitimacy.

Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident last Sunday prompted an election that is to be held on 21 July in Iran. The election has the potential to uncover political divisions, which is not what the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants as he looks to explore predictability and stability. While the elections are all about backroom deals, personalities and relationship to the supreme leader, ideology does play a role.

Saeed Jalili, a hardliner who has spent most of his career in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was Iran’s main nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013, announced on Sunday that he would stand. He was a candidate for presidency twice but withdrew in favour of Raisi, four years ago.

Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on the weekend, along with his supporters outside his residence said he was considering his options. Although it is highly unlikely that he will be cleared to stand owing to his populist unpredictability.

The Mayor of Tehran, Alireza Zakani, who has a similar outlook as Jalili, mentioned that he has not made any decision, but according to sources he was preparing a campaign team.

There are two choices for the traditional conservative candidates. One is Parviz Fattah, a business conglomerate, and former head of the Mostazafan Foundation. The other is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf who was the parliament speaker between 2020 and 2024.

Since reformists are to a great extent excluded from the parliament, the divisions are more clear between the traditionalists and the Paydari Front, the anti-western Shia supremacists who contradict any kind of compromise, including the nuclear deal.

Starting this Thursday, the registration for the presidency will last for four days. In the first round, as per the precedent, as many as 10 candidates could be permitted to join, although in 2021, only four actually stood.

There are still doubts if Ali Larijani, an experienced centrist, and a speaker of the parliament for 12 years, will be allowed to stand, or if he is seeking to stand. He has denied any rumours and reports of him entering the race and mentioned that any decision will be conveyed through his official channels. In the event he is allowed to run, it would be a sign that the regime understands how important it is for the president to have a legitimate mandate. Hassan Rouhani, the previous president, is in favour of him.

However, some Iranian media outlets are projecting that Muhammad Mokhber, the stolid vice president and current acting president, would be asked to step up and assume the position for a five-year term if the race turns unpredictable. He is a trusted figure in commercial operations, having handled much of the supreme leader’s personal business, despite his introduction of ineffectual Covid vaccinations and the specter of corruption that will hardly win him over to the average Iranian.

The leader of Khamenei’s vast economic conglomerate, the head of the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO), Parviz Fattah, is also favoured to run.

The EU-sanctioned Mousa Ghazanfarabadi, a vocal supporter of tighter hijab laws, was chosen to lead the largest faction in parliament in an interim capacity, indicating the attitude inside the body of parliament. He assisted in the imprisonment of the dual nationality of British and Iranian Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe as chairman of Tehran’s revolutionary court.

At the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors meeting beginning on June 3, three European powers are debating whether to present a motion regarding Iran’s refusal to grant IAEA requests for enhanced access to Iran’s nuclear sites.

Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the IAEA, is attempting to negotiate better access, but his passing has hindered the process. The appointment of Ali Shamkhani, the political advisor to the supreme leader and the former secretary of the supreme national security council, to lead the nuclear discussions is a sign of the issue’s significance.