2050 Net Zero Targets: A Lost Cause for New Zealand?

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Net Zero 2050 projections have also changed due to non-government factors.

According to new data, New Zealand’s aggressive goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is in danger of failing as a result of the government’s retreat on climate policy.

The country is now committed to meeting its obligations under the Paris Climate Accords and lowering its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050 thanks to historic climate legislation implemented by the Labour administration in 2019. In order to become carbon neutral in the future, New Zealand will need to outline in detail how it will accomplish its greenhouse gas targets.

The first draft of the coalition government’s strategy to reduce emissions was unveiled on Wednesday. The coalition is composed of the center-right National party, two minor partners, the libertarian Act party, and the populist New Zealand First party.

The nation is on track to fulfill its first and second emissions budgets, which cover the years 2022-2030, according to figures released alongside it. However, it will exceed its third budget and fall short of its long-term 2050 goal.

The nation was on track to complete its third budget, but the estimates have been revised, in part because the administration has not yet unveiled significant new climate measures following the rejection of several of the Labour government’s carbon reduction initiatives.

Projections have also changed due to non-government factors, such as a new supply arrangement that will keep the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter open until 2044.

If the government cannot implement new policies or technology to lower levels, the revised forecasts indicate that New Zealand will continue to emit a net 5 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2050.

Simon Watts, the minister of climate change, stated that while the government “understands the need for action in climate change” and is committed to the overarching 2050 target, it would “not accept shutting down productive sectors of the economy to meet emissions targets.”

Instead, he said, “We will use a technology-led approach to allow production to increase as our emissions come down.” The government will also direct more funds towards R&D.

Even while New Zealand contributes very little overall to global emissions, its gross emissions per person are significant, with agriculture accounting for approximately half of all emissions.

According to Watts, “Farmers need the tools in order to be able to reduce their emissions.” He further said that the agricultural sector is the backbone of the economy, and it is not feasible to help simply by implementing a pricing regime without those tools.

Additionally, the government has expressed interest in increasing the planting of trees, citing this as an inexpensive means of reducing emissions.

Watts stated, “If it removes carbon, we should be looking at the opportunity to leverage that more.”

According to a 2023 climate commission assessment, planting trees alone would not be able to sustain a net reduction in emissions over time.

The government unveiled its climate plan earlier this month. Among its initiatives were plans to double the amount of energy derived from renewable sources, increase the number of chargers for electric vehicles in public spaces, reduce emissions from agriculture, fund resource recovery through the waste minimization fund, and increase investment in carbon capture, utilization, and storage.

However, environmental organizations and climate scientists have labelled other government initiatives as “antagonistic” to the environment.

Among them are lifting the prohibition on offshore oil and gas exploration, proposing laws that could supersede environmental preservation in favour of large-scale infrastructure initiatives like mines, eliminating financial incentives for purchasing electric cars, and cutting back on funding for public transportation and bike lanes.

Additionally, the start date for taxing agricultural emissions in 2025 has been moved to 2030.

The administration made no appreciable new investments in environmental protection or climate crisis-related policies when it unveiled massive cuts to climate action projects in its first budget in May.

The draft plan released this week has not gone far enough to alleviate the concerns of climate scientists, many of whom feel that too much is being placed on developing technology and that emissions are being offset rather than stopped.

Ralph Sims, a professor emeritus in sustainable energy and climate mitigation at Massey University, stated that “Many of their policies to date will result in higher annual emissions that will not be offset by either planting trees or the emissions reduction scheme.”

The proposed plan, according to attorneys for Climate Action NZ, raises “serious concerns” about whether New Zealand will meet its goals.

Projections indicate that New Zealand will fall short of meeting its first NDC under the Paris Agreement, which would compel the nation to purchase carbon credits from other countries.

According to Jessica Palairet, executive director of Lawyers for Climate Action NZ, “this shortfall will come at a significant financial cost to the government, and it’s still not clear what the plan is for meeting that.”